Thursday, September 23, 2010

NFL Week 3 Picks

Last week I had the Jets over the Patriots and nearly the 49ers over the Saints (both right against the spread). Since I'd rather not dwell too much the Vikes or Cowboys picks, lets get right into week 3. As always, home team is listed first, projected winner in bold and confidence level is the probability that the pick is correct.

New Orleans (26) vs. Atlanta (14) Confidence: 80%
Atlanta has not been very good on offense, particularly on first down and they have been aweful stopping the run on first down. The Saints on the other hand have been very good running the ball on first and generally playing very good defense. The match-up signals bad news for the Falcons this week.

New England (25) vs. Buffalo (15) Confidence: 77%
The Patriots bounce back from not being able to stop the efficiency of Mark Sanchez by shutting down the UFL level Bills offense. The BIlls have had some success defending the pass, but that will not be enough to pull out a win on the road.

Carolina (13 ) vs. Cincinnati (15) Confidence: 92%
Highest confidence on the board despite the closeness of the score. Even the Bengals shouldn't be able to blow this as they face the 30th ranked offense in the league that is paired with one of the worst pass defenses in the league. 

Baltimore (21) vs. Cleveland (20) Confidence: 78% 
The model finally takes its talents and gets out of Cleveland. The Ravens good if not great offense goes to battle against a sub par defense on all fronts and as Cleveland has one of the worst passing attacks in the league, the Ravens should be winners at home.

Houston (26) vs Dallas (18) Confidence: 76%
Finally going against Dallas and strongly against them. The Texans have the 2nd best passing attack in the league and they are not afraid to use it, while the Cowboys have struggled mightily defending the pass (particularly on 3rd down). The Cowboys offense will continue to look good though as they will put up some yards against a porous pass defense, but it won't be enough.

Minnesota (28) vs. Detroit (20) Confidence: 88%
Detroit is the hot pick to start putting up some wins due to their gaudy sack numbers. They won't pull it off against the Vikes though as Favre is still leading a good offense and the Lions 27th ranked offense will not be able to break through a very strong Minnesota defense.

Kansas City (17) vs. San Francisco (18) Confidence: 62%
Chicago (23) vs. Green Bay (15) Confidence: 59%
Denver (24) vs. Indianapolis (16) Confidence: 77%
Arizona (26) vs. Oakland (20) Confidence: 97%

Jacksonville (21) vs. Philadelphia (24) Confidence: 61%

Tampa Bay (18) vs. Pittsburgh (19) Confidence: 73%

Seattle (21) vs. San Diego (20) Confidence: 55%
St. Louis (19) vs. Washington (30) Confidence: 71%

Note: Giants and Jets predictions will appear in the New York edition of the Wall Street Journal.

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