2010-11 Preseason Offense Rankings

Today I unveil my preseason rankings for NFL offenses. These rankings are calculated with the model I used to pick 9 of 11 of the 2009-10 playoffs. For each team, I used the data from the end of last season and then factored in the percentage of each roster that turned over as well as regression to the mean. That modified data is then fed into the model to estimate the point total each team would score against a perfectly average team. This procedure does not factor in schedule, so it purely is trying to determine the "best" offense in the league, not which offense will actually put up the best numbers.

The model uses situational variables such as yards per pass attempt on first down, percentage of first downs that a team passes on and yards per rush allowed on third down. The situational data allows us to examine specific match-ups and understand why one team has a higher probability of winning than another. In order to compare teams fairly however, we have to compare their performances against a "standard" team. While no team is perfectly average in every category, I constructed the average team to have a constant barometer to compare teams. With that very brief introduction, the rankings for the upcoming season are below. I included a ranking for each team, their estimated points against an average team, and their rank from the end of last year according to the NFL (who use yards per game to rank offenses).

Rank	Team	Offense	2009-10 Rank
1	San Diego	28.3	10
2	New Orleans	27.4	1
3	Dallas	26.8	2
4	Green Bay	26.4	6
5	Minnesota	26.2	5
6	Houston	25.9	4
7	New England	25.9	3
8	NY Giants	25.7	8
9	Indianapolis	25.6	9
10	Pittsburgh	24.8	7
11	Philadelphia	23.8	11
12	Baltimore	23.6	13
13	Arizona	23.1	14
14	Tennessee	22.9	12
15	Jacksonville	22.3	18
16	Atlanta	22.0	16
17	Denver	21.8	15
18	Washington	21.6	22
19	Miami	21.2	17
20	NY Jets	20.9	20
21	Chicago	20.9	23
22	Carolina	20.8	19
23	Cincinnati	20.6	24
24	Tampa Bay	19.7	28
25	San Francisco	19.7	27
26	Seattle	19.5	21
27	Detroit	19.4	26
28	Buffalo	19.3	30
29	Oakland	19.2	31
30	Kansas City	18.4	25
31	St. Louis	17.7	29
32	Cleveland	16.8	32

The biggest change from the end of last season to the beginning of this season is for the team at the very top of the rankings: San Diego. They jump from the 10th best offense last season to the best offense this season. There is a caveat to this jump in offensive ability however, and it comes from Norv learning from his past mistakes. If they just pass a little more frequently on first down, using one of their best assets, they will be able to tear up most defenses.

Condolences to fans in Cleveland however, as, even with some assumed regression to the mean, the Browns are not likely to get out of the cellar. They are projected to repeat as the worst offense in the league. This low ranking is driven by the incredibly inept passing game that was more than 1 yard below league average per attempt on first and second downs. With 80% of their roster returning, it does not look like there will be much room for improvement.

First Down Passing

I am on record suggesting that teams should pass more and pass more on first down in particular. It is fairly clear, that teams that can pass efficiently (above average yards per pass attempt on first down) and that pass frequently on first down (above average pass/run ratio on first and ten), are generally very good offenses. Last year, this group included teams like Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, Houston and Dallas. The list that is interesting to me though, is the list of teams that pass well, but do not pass very often. Last year those teams were:

  Teams                           YPPA          Pass Freq.

Baltimore	6.95	44.8
Denver	6.97	43.6
Minnesota	7.17	43.3
NY Jets	7.37	25.2
San Diego	7.43	43.3
Tennessee	7.21	39.9

The average YPPA on first down in the NFL last year was 6.63 and the average pass frequency on first down was 46.9%.  So there are some good teams (Jets, Chargers, Vikings) and some average teams (Tennessee, Denver) but no really bad teams. One potential interpretation of this data is that efficient passing is the key and as long as a team can pass efficiently, then the run/pass mix is not that important. An alternative interpretation though is that if teams passed more frequently, they would have performed even better.

Looking carefully at the teams though, the motivation for the low Pass Freq. can be understood for most of the teams. The Ravens, Broncos, Jets and Tennessee all had young and/or unproven QBs at the helm so that play callers would naturally tend to not give them as many attempts as Manning/Brady/Breese. In Minnesota, Favre's age and the presence of a premier RB (true for the Titan's as well) seem to make a clear case for a lower first down passing frequency.

Finally, we get to the Chargers. Here is the team with the highest YPPA on this list and 8th in the league, but they throw on only 43% of first down attempts. They had one of the best QBs in the game running the show and no dominant RB. Now they finished with 13 wins so it is hard to argue that they underperformed, except that they lost again in the playoffs and it is this conservative play calling that is at the heart of why. My prediction model had the Jets over the Chargers largely because the Chargers were downplaying their best weapon.

My son is a huge Chargers fan (and dismissed my prediction of a Jets win last season with a flipant "well your wrong"), so I hop that Norv and the boys who are calling the plays in San Diego will learn that their conservative ways will only lead them to the same place over and over again.