Thursday, September 2, 2010

Season Predictions

With a week to go before the season begins, for your commentary, I present my the win totals from my season simulator for the NFL 2010-11 season. I have also included each team's win total from last season, along with their expected change in wins.


Team 2010-11 Wins 2009-10 Wins Change
Pittsburgh 12 9 4
NY Jets 12 9 3
San Diego 12 13 -1
Arizona 11 10 1
New England 11 10 1
New Orleans 11 13 -2
Philadelphia 11 11 0
Baltimore 10 9 1
Cincinnati 10 10 0
Green Bay 10 11 -1
Houston 10 9 1
Tennessee 10 8 2
Chicago 9 7 2
Dallas 9 11 -2
Denver 9 8 1
Indianapolis 9 14 -5
Minnesota 9 12 -3
San Francisco 9 8 1
Washington 9 4 5
Carolina 8 8 0
Seattle 7
5 3
Buffalo 7 6 1
Atlanta 6 9 -3
Jacksonville 6 7 -1
NY Giants 5
8 -2
Miami 5 7 -2
Detroit 4 2 2
Kansas City 4 4 0
Oakland 4 5 -1
Tampa Bay 4 3 1
St. Louis 2 1 1
Cleveland 1 5 -4

Not much of a surprise to see Cleveland and St Louis at the bottom (though winning four fewer games than last year for the Browns is pretty startling). Beyond the Colts dropping to 9 wins, the biggest surprise to me was the Redskins adding 5 wins. They have upgraded their offensive line (it would actually be difficult to not have improved that unit) and made a marginal improvement at QB (while McNabb is healthy...I think I would prefer Campbell over 2nd stringer Rex Grossman) but 9 wins seems awfully ambitious for that group.

5 comments:

  1. 2010-11 wins: 259
    2009-10 wins: 256
    Change: +3

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  2. I find it hard to believe that Pittsburgh is 4 wins better if Roethlisberger misses the first 4 games. Sure, they should have won more than 9 games last year; but even before Leftwich's injury they were looking at a possible 1-3 start.

    What really surprises me here is your prediction for the Raiders. Jason Campbell might not be Peyton Manning, but he absolutely has to be better than Russell. I would think that change alone would translate into a couple wins?

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  3. I wonder why the Colts are predicted to lose 5 more games than last year and finish 3rd in the division...what unit on the Colts is worse this year as oppossed to last year when they didn't lose any regualr season games they tried to? IDK why anyone would think Peyton would all of a sudden forget how to play QB...

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  4. Peyton didn't forget, but he won't be as good and they play a tougher schedule. Texans also getting better.

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  5. Optimegus - Thanks for catching the typos.

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