I have been fine tuning my projections for actual win totals for the upcoming NFL season (ONLY 7 DAYS TO GO!!). To produce the win projections, I input the entire season into a simulator, and project the score of every game along with the probability that the winner is picked accurately. These projections are based on the model I used with the Wall Street Journal during the playoffs last year and explained roughly in previous posts. Using those projections I simulate the entire season and take average win totals.
The results are always interesting and occasionally produce a result that draws my attention. I like to compare the projected win totals with last season's win totals for each team to see who the system says the big risers and fallers will be. After running the simulation, I found that the team with the largest drop in wins from last season to this season is the Indianapolis Colts. That's right, Peyton and Co. are projected to go from 14 wins last season to only 9 this season (I say only 9...I think Rams/Browns/Raiders' fans would just about kill for 9 wins).
The Colts being the owner of the largest projected drop in wins is cause for further investigation. What causes the Colts to go from 14 wins and clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs to 9 wins and maybe not making the playoffs at all?
Part of the answer of course is Peyton himself. Peyton will continue to be one of the best QBs in the league, but he will be 34 during the 2010-11 season and is projected to have his first sub 4000 yard season since he was 29. A 700 yard drop in total passing yards is fairly significant, particularly since his interception total has been trending up since he was 30, but perhaps not enough to explain a 5 win drop.
The second part of the explanation has to do with schedule. Last season, the Colts' opponents had an average win total of 7.5. The Colts' are faced with a much tougher schedule in the upcoming season as their opponents' have an average win total of 8.5. One extra game in average win total may not seem like a big deal, but consider that last season, only 37.5% of the Colts' opponents had more than 8 wins while 68.75% of their opponents in the upcoming season have projected win totals of more than 8 games.
Peyton's decline along with a significantly tougher schedule make the Colts a prime candidate for a post-Super Bowl slump to only 9 wins (again, sorry Rams/Browns/Raiders' fans for the "only"). A repeat Super Bowl appearance seems fairly unlikely as they are not lock to even make the playoffs.
Showing posts with label Manning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Manning. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Saturday, August 21, 2010
QBs of the NFC East
Traveling east from the land of Favre, I find that it is time to project the QBs of the NFC East. Here we have three established QBs with significant track records that can be used to make data-based projections, then we have Kolb. Kolb presents an interesting problem as he has been in the league for three seasons, played in 12 games, but completed fewer than 80 passes.
Kolb's career completion percentage of 60% should give Eagles fans some hope as Donocan only broke 60% in one season (at that was when he hit 61.5% in 2007). The problem is, for the Eagle fan, that if you take the 60% number seriously, then you probably have to take his TD% (3.1%) and INT% (5.4%) seriously as well, and when you do that, you notice that he throws 74% more interceptions than touchdowns.
This is where, as an analyst, I have to remember two important things: 1) a small sample is a small sample is a small sample...BE CAREFUL, 2) Andy Reid has a lot more information about Kevin Kolb than I do. So with those to ideas clear in my head I present to you NFC East QB projections:
Notice that Kolb is projected to throw the most interceptions in this group and ties Donovan fro fewest TDs, but no where near as many as his career numbers would suggest. The data do suggest that Kolb will struggle, but will show some improvement as well. The big news in these projections is Romo, and not just for his gaudy yardage total. The data suggest that he will have two more TDs than Eli for tops in the division and two fewer interceptions than Eli again for the best mark in the division. Romo has been a very efficient QB never posting a yards per attempt below 7.7 (a mark Donovan has only beaten twice in his career and Eli only once) and had a ridiculously low interception rate last season (1.6%). While the interception rate will likely come up a little, he will still be the top QB in the division by good margin.
Kolb's career completion percentage of 60% should give Eagles fans some hope as Donocan only broke 60% in one season (at that was when he hit 61.5% in 2007). The problem is, for the Eagle fan, that if you take the 60% number seriously, then you probably have to take his TD% (3.1%) and INT% (5.4%) seriously as well, and when you do that, you notice that he throws 74% more interceptions than touchdowns.
This is where, as an analyst, I have to remember two important things: 1) a small sample is a small sample is a small sample...BE CAREFUL, 2) Andy Reid has a lot more information about Kevin Kolb than I do. So with those to ideas clear in my head I present to you NFC East QB projections:
| Player | Team | Yds | Ints | TDs |
| Donovan McNabb | Redskins | 3312 | 12 | 19 |
| Tony Romo | Cowboys | 4785 | 11 | 27 |
| Eli Manning | Giants | 3500 | 13 | 25 |
| Kevin Kolb | Eagles | 2828 | 18 | 19 |
Notice that Kolb is projected to throw the most interceptions in this group and ties Donovan fro fewest TDs, but no where near as many as his career numbers would suggest. The data do suggest that Kolb will struggle, but will show some improvement as well. The big news in these projections is Romo, and not just for his gaudy yardage total. The data suggest that he will have two more TDs than Eli for tops in the division and two fewer interceptions than Eli again for the best mark in the division. Romo has been a very efficient QB never posting a yards per attempt below 7.7 (a mark Donovan has only beaten twice in his career and Eli only once) and had a ridiculously low interception rate last season (1.6%). While the interception rate will likely come up a little, he will still be the top QB in the division by good margin.
Friday, August 6, 2010
QB Value: Kyle Orton vs. Peyton Manning
When trying to asses the value of any particular player in a salary cap world, it is vital to compare their on field performance to the resources that they use up (Cap Space). A great player can only demonstrate their greatness if a team is able to provide other valuable players around them, so any player who does not perform up to their salary (or more specifically their cap number), is hurting their team. For example, if a QB has a cap number of $8 million, but their performance is equivalent to that of a $4 million QB, that QB has wasted $4 million of their teams money that could have been spent on other players and positions to bolster the entire team.
The problem of course is evaluating the performance of one player in a game that has 22 players on the field and data collected for only 3 or 4, then translating that on field performance into a relevant salary. For starters, lets look at QBs. Of course, due to data limitations, this is truly an evaluation of the passing game, not just the QB, but again, this is a start. For all players, we need to measure both the quality and the quantity of their performance. We need to differentiate between the QB that has thrown for 4000 yards on 500 attempts and the one that had thrown for 4000 yards on nearly 600 attempts. Clearly the more efficient QB is more valuable, but we additionally need to recognize that a QB who starts 16 games has contributed more than a QB who has started 2 games, regardless of how well the 2 game started played.
Combining efficiency (Yds per attempt), accuracy (completion percentage) and total yards, produces a familiar ranking of the top QBs of 2009: Brees, Favre, Schaub, Manning and Roethlisberger. Rivers and Rodgers are also high up on the list. The data suggests that, when compared to their peers, these guys all played well enough to "earn" over $11 million. Problem is, many of these guys made well over $14 or $15 million.
Dividing a player's earned salary by their actual salary (or cap value), we get the percentage of the salary that they actually earned. Players who have earned more than 100% of their salaries are adding more value to their team than they are costing the team. Sorting the top 20 QBs by percentage of earned salary provides a slightly different ranking of QBs. Top of the list is now Kyle Orton whose 62% completion percentage, 3800+ yards and 6.8 yards per attempt suggest that Orton provided the Broncos with over $8 million in value, while costing them only $1.1 million which means that Orton earned his salary 7X over.
Compare Orton's value to that of Peyton Manning. Manning put up great numbers as usual with 69% completion rate, 4500 yards and 7.78 yards per attempt for an earned salary of $11.4 million: 42% higher than Orton's earned salary. But Peyton had a cap cost last year of $21.2 million, meaning that he cost the Colts about $10 million more than he gave them (Percentage of Salary Earned was 54%).
For the team, that means that, if they had paid Peyton his earned salary, they would have had an additional $10 mil to sign players. Imagine adding Ray Lewis (cap charge of $5mil for the Ravens last season) to the team that lost the Super Bowl and tell me that having him and another $5 mil player would not have made a difference.
Of course Manning signed a long term contract and I am not suggesting that the Colts made a mistake in locking him up as they did. Manning is one of the greats of all time and is playing at a very high level. It is also likely that everything that he brings to the team is not captured in this quickie statistic of earned salary. What I am trying to demonstrate however, is the power and importance of not overpaying players in a salary cap world. Every dollar spent on one player is a dollar not spent on another player, so that signing a Sam Bradford to an enormous contract, can kill a team if he does not live up to it while signing a guy like Kyle Orton can provide huge flexibility to the organization, even if he does not provide the top level of QB play.
Note that of our top five QB seasons from last year on a pure performance basis, none of them make the top 5 of Percentage of Salary Earned with Brees being the best coming in at 6th with an earned salary $1.4 mil above his cap charge, followed immediately by Schaub with an earned salary $1.3mil above his cap charge. This demonstrates the danger of large long term contracts for NFL teams, as well as the ease with which teams can overpay at the QB position.
Performance data is provided by Pro-Football-Reference and salary data is from USA Today.
The problem of course is evaluating the performance of one player in a game that has 22 players on the field and data collected for only 3 or 4, then translating that on field performance into a relevant salary. For starters, lets look at QBs. Of course, due to data limitations, this is truly an evaluation of the passing game, not just the QB, but again, this is a start. For all players, we need to measure both the quality and the quantity of their performance. We need to differentiate between the QB that has thrown for 4000 yards on 500 attempts and the one that had thrown for 4000 yards on nearly 600 attempts. Clearly the more efficient QB is more valuable, but we additionally need to recognize that a QB who starts 16 games has contributed more than a QB who has started 2 games, regardless of how well the 2 game started played.
Combining efficiency (Yds per attempt), accuracy (completion percentage) and total yards, produces a familiar ranking of the top QBs of 2009: Brees, Favre, Schaub, Manning and Roethlisberger. Rivers and Rodgers are also high up on the list. The data suggests that, when compared to their peers, these guys all played well enough to "earn" over $11 million. Problem is, many of these guys made well over $14 or $15 million.
Dividing a player's earned salary by their actual salary (or cap value), we get the percentage of the salary that they actually earned. Players who have earned more than 100% of their salaries are adding more value to their team than they are costing the team. Sorting the top 20 QBs by percentage of earned salary provides a slightly different ranking of QBs. Top of the list is now Kyle Orton whose 62% completion percentage, 3800+ yards and 6.8 yards per attempt suggest that Orton provided the Broncos with over $8 million in value, while costing them only $1.1 million which means that Orton earned his salary 7X over.
| 2009 Regular Season | |||||||
| Rank | Player | Cmp% | Yds | AY/A | Earned Salary | 2009 Cap Charge | % Salary Earned |
| 1 | Kyle Orton | 62% | 3802 | 6.81 | $8,038,507 | $1,095,000 | 734% |
| 2 | Tony Romo | 63% | 4483 | 8.36 | $10,340,410 | $4,588,479 | 225% |
| 3 | Jason Campbell | 65% | 3618 | 6.59 | $8,417,210 | $3,895,280 | 216% |
| 4 | Joe Flacco | 63% | 3613 | 7 | $8,442,026 | $4,881,760 | 173% |
| 5 | Aaron Rodgers | 65% | 4434 | 8.72 | $11,013,690 | $9,652,500 | 114% |
| 6 | Drew Brees | 71% | 4388 | 8.9 | $12,090,021 | $10,660,400 | 113% |
| 7 | Matt Schaub | 68% | 4770 | 8.02 | $11,541,761 | $10,250,000 | 113% |
| 8 | Philip Rivers | 65% | 4254 | 9.07 | $11,158,450 | $11,541,630 | 97% |
| 9 | Brett Favre | 68% | 4202 | 8.56 | $11,597,205 | $12,000,000 | 97% |
| 10 | Ben Roethlisberger | 67% | 4328 | 8.51 | $11,344,517 | $13,221,560 | 86% |
| 11 | Kurt Warner | 66% | 3753 | 7.1 | $9,620,553 | $11,504,680 | 84% |
| 12 | David Garrard | 61% | 3597 | 6.68 | $7,162,938 | $9,000,000 | 80% |
| 13 | Tom Brady | 66% | 4398 | 7.74 | $10,681,780 | $14,627,280 | 73% |
| 14 | Eli Manning | 62% | 4021 | 7.72 | $9,269,839 | $13,066,668 | 71% |
| 15 | Peyton Manning | 69% | 4500 | 7.78 | $11,358,447 | $21,205,718 | 54% |
| 16 | Donovan McNabb | 60% | 3553 | 8 | $8,181,514 | $16,773,950 | 49% |
| 17 | Jay Cutler | 61% | 3666 | 5.47 | $5,442,645 | $11,534,999 | 47% |
| 18 | Matt Hasselbeck | 60% | 3029 | 5.34 | $4,225,949 | $9,456,240 | 45% |
| 19 | Matt Ryan | 58% | 2916 | 6.04 | $4,289,558 | $9,907,280 | 43% |
| 20 | Carson Palmer | 61% | 3094 | 6.29 | $5,820,264 | $14,300,000 | 41% |
Compare Orton's value to that of Peyton Manning. Manning put up great numbers as usual with 69% completion rate, 4500 yards and 7.78 yards per attempt for an earned salary of $11.4 million: 42% higher than Orton's earned salary. But Peyton had a cap cost last year of $21.2 million, meaning that he cost the Colts about $10 million more than he gave them (Percentage of Salary Earned was 54%).
For the team, that means that, if they had paid Peyton his earned salary, they would have had an additional $10 mil to sign players. Imagine adding Ray Lewis (cap charge of $5mil for the Ravens last season) to the team that lost the Super Bowl and tell me that having him and another $5 mil player would not have made a difference.
Of course Manning signed a long term contract and I am not suggesting that the Colts made a mistake in locking him up as they did. Manning is one of the greats of all time and is playing at a very high level. It is also likely that everything that he brings to the team is not captured in this quickie statistic of earned salary. What I am trying to demonstrate however, is the power and importance of not overpaying players in a salary cap world. Every dollar spent on one player is a dollar not spent on another player, so that signing a Sam Bradford to an enormous contract, can kill a team if he does not live up to it while signing a guy like Kyle Orton can provide huge flexibility to the organization, even if he does not provide the top level of QB play.
Note that of our top five QB seasons from last year on a pure performance basis, none of them make the top 5 of Percentage of Salary Earned with Brees being the best coming in at 6th with an earned salary $1.4 mil above his cap charge, followed immediately by Schaub with an earned salary $1.3mil above his cap charge. This demonstrates the danger of large long term contracts for NFL teams, as well as the ease with which teams can overpay at the QB position.
Performance data is provided by Pro-Football-Reference and salary data is from USA Today.
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