2010-11 Preseason Offense Rankings

Today I unveil my preseason rankings for NFL offenses. These rankings are calculated with the model I used to pick 9 of 11 of the 2009-10 playoffs. For each team, I used the data from the end of last season and then factored in the percentage of each roster that turned over as well as regression to the mean. That modified data is then fed into the model to estimate the point total each team would score against a perfectly average team. This procedure does not factor in schedule, so it purely is trying to determine the "best" offense in the league, not which offense will actually put up the best numbers.

The model uses situational variables such as yards per pass attempt on first down, percentage of first downs that a team passes on and yards per rush allowed on third down. The situational data allows us to examine specific match-ups and understand why one team has a higher probability of winning than another. In order to compare teams fairly however, we have to compare their performances against a "standard" team. While no team is perfectly average in every category, I constructed the average team to have a constant barometer to compare teams. With that very brief introduction, the rankings for the upcoming season are below. I included a ranking for each team, their estimated points against an average team, and their rank from the end of last year according to the NFL (who use yards per game to rank offenses).

Rank	Team	Offense	2009-10 Rank
1	San Diego	28.3	10
2	New Orleans	27.4	1
3	Dallas	26.8	2
4	Green Bay	26.4	6
5	Minnesota	26.2	5
6	Houston	25.9	4
7	New England	25.9	3
8	NY Giants	25.7	8
9	Indianapolis	25.6	9
10	Pittsburgh	24.8	7
11	Philadelphia	23.8	11
12	Baltimore	23.6	13
13	Arizona	23.1	14
14	Tennessee	22.9	12
15	Jacksonville	22.3	18
16	Atlanta	22.0	16
17	Denver	21.8	15
18	Washington	21.6	22
19	Miami	21.2	17
20	NY Jets	20.9	20
21	Chicago	20.9	23
22	Carolina	20.8	19
23	Cincinnati	20.6	24
24	Tampa Bay	19.7	28
25	San Francisco	19.7	27
26	Seattle	19.5	21
27	Detroit	19.4	26
28	Buffalo	19.3	30
29	Oakland	19.2	31
30	Kansas City	18.4	25
31	St. Louis	17.7	29
32	Cleveland	16.8	32

The biggest change from the end of last season to the beginning of this season is for the team at the very top of the rankings: San Diego. They jump from the 10th best offense last season to the best offense this season. There is a caveat to this jump in offensive ability however, and it comes from Norv learning from his past mistakes. If they just pass a little more frequently on first down, using one of their best assets, they will be able to tear up most defenses.

Condolences to fans in Cleveland however, as, even with some assumed regression to the mean, the Browns are not likely to get out of the cellar. They are projected to repeat as the worst offense in the league. This low ranking is driven by the incredibly inept passing game that was more than 1 yard below league average per attempt on first and second downs. With 80% of their roster returning, it does not look like there will be much room for improvement.