Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Projecting the AFC South QBs

The story in the AFC South this season, at least among the QBs, is that for the first time in what seems like the history of the world, Peyton Manning will not have the best stats in the division. This is not a statement that Manning is not the best QB in his division...he is probably still the best QB in the league. Instead, this is a suggestion that, on the basis of total yards, TDs and interceptions, Matt Schaub will surpass the master.

Schaub looks to build on his impressive 2009-10 campaign and will likely succeed. My projections estimate that Schaub will put up an impressive 4900 yards and join a very exclusive club of QBs with over 4800 yards in a season. He will be only the 6th player in NFL history to throw for more than 4800 yards, the others in the club are Brees, Warner, Brady, Fouts and Marino. The big risk for Schaub beyond the obvious injury risk, is Andre Johnson's new contract. This contract keeps Johnson in Houston until 2016, but more importantly guarantees the 29 year old wide out an additional $13 million.

Player Team Yds Ints TDs
Peyton Manning Colts 3836 16 30
Matt Schaub Texans 4920 14 31
Vince Young Titans 3000 10 20
David Garrard Jaguars 3450 15 14

The QB who will be on the shakiest ground will be Garrard. Garrard is projected to have one more interception than TD if he plays a full 16 games, so Luke McCown is likely to get a shot in Jacksonville.

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