Saturday, August 21, 2010

QBs of the NFC East

Traveling east from the land of Favre, I find that it is time to project the QBs of the NFC East. Here we have three established QBs with significant track records that can be used to make data-based projections, then we have Kolb. Kolb presents an interesting problem as he has been in the league for three seasons, played in 12 games, but completed fewer than 80 passes.

Kolb's career completion percentage of 60% should give Eagles fans some hope as Donocan only broke 60% in one season (at that was when he hit 61.5% in 2007). The problem is, for the Eagle fan, that if you take the 60% number seriously, then you probably have to take his TD% (3.1%) and INT% (5.4%) seriously as well, and when you do that, you notice that he throws 74% more interceptions than touchdowns.

This is where, as an analyst, I have to remember two important things: 1) a small sample is a small sample is a small sample...BE CAREFUL, 2) Andy Reid has a lot more information about Kevin Kolb than I do. So with those to ideas clear in my head I present to you NFC East QB projections:

Player Team Yds Ints TDs
Donovan McNabb Redskins 3312 12 19
Tony Romo Cowboys 4785 11 27
Eli Manning Giants 3500 13 25
Kevin Kolb Eagles 2828 18 19

Notice that Kolb is projected to throw the most interceptions in this group and ties Donovan fro fewest TDs, but no where near as many as his career numbers would suggest. The data do suggest that Kolb will struggle, but will show some improvement as well. The big news in these projections is Romo, and not just for his gaudy yardage total. The data suggest that he will have two more TDs than Eli for tops in the division and two fewer interceptions than Eli again for the best mark in the division. Romo has been a very efficient QB never posting a yards per attempt below 7.7 (a mark Donovan has only beaten twice in his career and Eli only once) and had a ridiculously low interception rate last season (1.6%). While the interception rate will likely come up a little, he will still be the top QB in the division by good margin.

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