Jets to Repeat

Rex Ryan talks a good game and there is little doubt that he coaches a pretty good defensive game as well. Using the same methods I used previously to project offenses for the upcoming NFL season, I rank the defenses below. The ranking takes into account last year performance as well as off season changes and regression to the mean (assuming great teams don't fully sustain their greatness and sucky teams to fully sustain their suckiness).

Even with the built in regression to the mean, the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets still hold on to the top position. The projections estimate that the Jets would hold a perfectly average team to 16.4 points (yes I understand that it is not possible to score fractional points in the NFL, view this as the average points scored against the Jets if they played this average team 100 times). The 16.4 points allowed is 8.3% better than the second best team (Bengals) and more than a TD ahead of the last place Rams.

The Jets were a great defense last year and will likely continue to be one because they do not let teams get started. They are projected to allow an average of 3.5 yards per rush and 5.4 yards per pass on first down. To put that into context league averages on first down 4.1 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per pass. Keeping teams down on first down, makes it easier to force them into the dreaded 3rd and long where Ryan can unleash his pass rushers and cause all kinds of havoc.


Okay, so the Jets are still #1, what about the rest of the league?

Visitor Score Rank	Team	Visitor Score	2009-10 Rank
1	NY Jets	16.8	1
2	Green Bay	18.2	2
3	Cincinnati	18.6	4
4	Denver	18.8	7
5	Philadelphia	18.8	12
6	Dallas	18.9	9
7	Pittsburgh	19.0	5
8	Indianapolis	19.1	18
9	Minnesota	19.6	6
10	Arizona	19.7	20
11	Buffalo	20.0	19
12	Baltimore	20.1	3
13	San Francisco	20.1	15
14	Houston	20.2	13
15	New England	20.2	11
16	San Diego	20.3	16
17	Carolina	20.4	8
18	Chicago	20.9	17
19	Tennessee	21.0	28
20	Washington	21.1	10
21	New Orleans	21.2	25
22	NY Giants	21.2	13
23	Seattle	21.3	24
24	Atlanta	22.3	21
25	Miami	22.4	22
26	Tampa Bay	22.5	27
27	Cleveland	23.2	31
28	Detroit	23.4	32
29	Oakland	23.8	26
30	Jacksonville	24.2	23
31	Kansas City	24.2	30
32	St. Louis	24.5	29

Unlike in the offensive projections, there are some major movers in the defensive rankings. The Colts and Cardinals all jump into the top 10 by jumping ten spots in the rankings while the Ravens, Redskins and Panthers all fall down the rankings.

So what is the difference between the Ravens (3rd last year and 12th this year) and the Jets who were able to hold onto their 1st place ranking? The major difference is in the passing game. While the Jets were very good at shutting down opposing passing attacks the Ravens were not. The Ravens allowed almost league average yards per pass attempt on first down and well above average yards per pass attempt on 2nd down (6.1 vs. 5.9 league average). They just were no dominant enough in any one area that the model considers to hold onto a top ten position.