I have been fine tuning my projections for actual win totals for the upcoming NFL season (ONLY 7 DAYS TO GO!!). To produce the win projections, I input the entire season into a simulator, and project the score of every game along with the probability that the winner is picked accurately. These projections are based on the model I used with the Wall Street Journal during the playoffs last year and explained roughly in previous posts. Using those projections I simulate the entire season and take average win totals.
The results are always interesting and occasionally produce a result that draws my attention. I like to compare the projected win totals with last season's win totals for each team to see who the system says the big risers and fallers will be. After running the simulation, I found that the team with the largest drop in wins from last season to this season is the Indianapolis Colts. That's right, Peyton and Co. are projected to go from 14 wins last season to only 9 this season (I say only 9...I think Rams/Browns/Raiders' fans would just about kill for 9 wins).
The Colts being the owner of the largest projected drop in wins is cause for further investigation. What causes the Colts to go from 14 wins and clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs to 9 wins and maybe not making the playoffs at all?
Part of the answer of course is Peyton himself. Peyton will continue to be one of the best QBs in the league, but he will be 34 during the 2010-11 season and is projected to have his first sub 4000 yard season since he was 29. A 700 yard drop in total passing yards is fairly significant, particularly since his interception total has been trending up since he was 30, but perhaps not enough to explain a 5 win drop.
The second part of the explanation has to do with schedule. Last season, the Colts' opponents had an average win total of 7.5. The Colts' are faced with a much tougher schedule in the upcoming season as their opponents' have an average win total of 8.5. One extra game in average win total may not seem like a big deal, but consider that last season, only 37.5% of the Colts' opponents had more than 8 wins while 68.75% of their opponents in the upcoming season have projected win totals of more than 8 games.
Peyton's decline along with a significantly tougher schedule make the Colts a prime candidate for a post-Super Bowl slump to only 9 wins (again, sorry Rams/Browns/Raiders' fans for the "only"). A repeat Super Bowl appearance seems fairly unlikely as they are not lock to even make the playoffs.
Showing posts with label colts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label colts. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Monday, August 16, 2010
Jets to Repeat
Rex Ryan talks a good game and there is little doubt that he coaches a pretty good defensive game as well. Using the same methods I used previously to project offenses for the upcoming NFL season, I rank the defenses below. The ranking takes into account last year performance as well as off season changes and regression to the mean (assuming great teams don't fully sustain their greatness and sucky teams to fully sustain their suckiness).
Even with the built in regression to the mean, the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets still hold on to the top position. The projections estimate that the Jets would hold a perfectly average team to 16.4 points (yes I understand that it is not possible to score fractional points in the NFL, view this as the average points scored against the Jets if they played this average team 100 times). The 16.4 points allowed is 8.3% better than the second best team (Bengals) and more than a TD ahead of the last place Rams.
The Jets were a great defense last year and will likely continue to be one because they do not let teams get started. They are projected to allow an average of 3.5 yards per rush and 5.4 yards per pass on first down. To put that into context league averages on first down 4.1 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per pass. Keeping teams down on first down, makes it easier to force them into the dreaded 3rd and long where Ryan can unleash his pass rushers and cause all kinds of havoc.
Okay, so the Jets are still #1, what about the rest of the league?
Unlike in the offensive projections, there are some major movers in the defensive rankings. The Colts and Cardinals all jump into the top 10 by jumping ten spots in the rankings while the Ravens, Redskins and Panthers all fall down the rankings.
So what is the difference between the Ravens (3rd last year and 12th this year) and the Jets who were able to hold onto their 1st place ranking? The major difference is in the passing game. While the Jets were very good at shutting down opposing passing attacks the Ravens were not. The Ravens allowed almost league average yards per pass attempt on first down and well above average yards per pass attempt on 2nd down (6.1 vs. 5.9 league average). They just were no dominant enough in any one area that the model considers to hold onto a top ten position.
Even with the built in regression to the mean, the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets still hold on to the top position. The projections estimate that the Jets would hold a perfectly average team to 16.4 points (yes I understand that it is not possible to score fractional points in the NFL, view this as the average points scored against the Jets if they played this average team 100 times). The 16.4 points allowed is 8.3% better than the second best team (Bengals) and more than a TD ahead of the last place Rams.
The Jets were a great defense last year and will likely continue to be one because they do not let teams get started. They are projected to allow an average of 3.5 yards per rush and 5.4 yards per pass on first down. To put that into context league averages on first down 4.1 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per pass. Keeping teams down on first down, makes it easier to force them into the dreaded 3rd and long where Ryan can unleash his pass rushers and cause all kinds of havoc.
Okay, so the Jets are still #1, what about the rest of the league?
| Visitor Score Rank | Team | Visitor Score | 2009-10 Rank |
| 1 | NY Jets | 16.8 | 1 |
| 2 | Green Bay | 18.2 | 2 |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 18.6 | 4 |
| 4 | Denver | 18.8 | 7 |
| 5 | Philadelphia | 18.8 | 12 |
| 6 | Dallas | 18.9 | 9 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | 19.0 | 5 |
| 8 | Indianapolis | 19.1 | 18 |
| 9 | Minnesota | 19.6 | 6 |
| 10 | Arizona | 19.7 | 20 |
| 11 | Buffalo | 20.0 | 19 |
| 12 | Baltimore | 20.1 | 3 |
| 13 | San Francisco | 20.1 | 15 |
| 14 | Houston | 20.2 | 13 |
| 15 | New England | 20.2 | 11 |
| 16 | San Diego | 20.3 | 16 |
| 17 | Carolina | 20.4 | 8 |
| 18 | Chicago | 20.9 | 17 |
| 19 | Tennessee | 21.0 | 28 |
| 20 | Washington | 21.1 | 10 |
| 21 | New Orleans | 21.2 | 25 |
| 22 | NY Giants | 21.2 | 13 |
| 23 | Seattle | 21.3 | 24 |
| 24 | Atlanta | 22.3 | 21 |
| 25 | Miami | 22.4 | 22 |
| 26 | Tampa Bay | 22.5 | 27 |
| 27 | Cleveland | 23.2 | 31 |
| 28 | Detroit | 23.4 | 32 |
| 29 | Oakland | 23.8 | 26 |
| 30 | Jacksonville | 24.2 | 23 |
| 31 | Kansas City | 24.2 | 30 |
| 32 | St. Louis | 24.5 | 29 |
Unlike in the offensive projections, there are some major movers in the defensive rankings. The Colts and Cardinals all jump into the top 10 by jumping ten spots in the rankings while the Ravens, Redskins and Panthers all fall down the rankings.
So what is the difference between the Ravens (3rd last year and 12th this year) and the Jets who were able to hold onto their 1st place ranking? The major difference is in the passing game. While the Jets were very good at shutting down opposing passing attacks the Ravens were not. The Ravens allowed almost league average yards per pass attempt on first down and well above average yards per pass attempt on 2nd down (6.1 vs. 5.9 league average). They just were no dominant enough in any one area that the model considers to hold onto a top ten position.
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